Bank of England hints at rate cuts this summer, despite no fall in wage growth.

14/05/2024


Wage growth stayed put at 6% in the three months to March, the same as in the three months to February, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Economists had expected lower 5.9% growth. So-called real pay, which strips out inflationary effects, increased to 2.4% however, the highest since the three months to August 2021. Including bonuses, pay growth came in at 5.7%, also unchanged, whereas economists had expected that measure to fall to 5.5%. “Earnings growth in cash terms remains high, with the recent falls in the rate now levelling off,” ONS director of economic statistics Liz McKeown said. The data dims hopes for an early cut in interest rates; Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey said at this month’s post-Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Meeting briefing that the data between now and the next meeting in June will be watched closely. Next month’s data will also be critical, not least because that figure will begin to show the impact of April’s rise in the National Living Wage from £10.42 to £11.44 per hour, a near 10% increase. However, McKeown also said there were “tentative signs that the jobs market is cooling, with both employment from our household survey and the number of workers on payroll showing falls in the latest periods”.  Unemployment rose to 4.3% and number of vacancies available fell for the 22nd consecutive period. The early estimate for the number of payrolled employees in April also fell by 85,000, although the ONS said this was likely to be revised.

The BoE Chief Economist, Huw Pill, said this morning in response to the wage growth data that the MPC might still be able to consider cutting interest rates over the summer. "I think it's not unreasonable to believe that through the summer we will begin to see enough confidence in the decline in persistence that the Bank Rate will come into consideration," Pill said in an online presentation organised by the ICAEW, an accountancy body.

NatWest: The Treasury is finalising plans for a significant sale of its remaining stake in NatWest Group to reduce its stake below 10% by the end of the year it was reported by City AM yesterday. The Treasury is intending to fully privatise the group by the 2025-2026 financial year, the newspaper added, saying the timing of the sale could hinge on the date of the next general election. UK Plc currently has a stake of nearly 27% in the bank, with a current value of around £7.5bn. The bank was rescued during the 2008 financial crisis with an 84% stake.

Big London retailers seem to be recovering from the hit to business caused by covid lockdowns and the cost of living crisis, if a survey by American Express is to be believed. Some 55% told the credit card company they plan to open at least one new bricks and mortar store this year, City A.M reports.

Post Office Horizon Inquiry: Mark Davies, the former Director of Communications at the Post Office has been giving evidence to MPs and said that in hindsight, a series of emails denying problems with Horizon "look ludicrous," the BBC reports. Asked if he ever considered the possibility that the Post Office were "the baddies" - he says he "deeply regrets" not asking more questions, but insisted the Post Office "did our best to be open and transparent" as the scandal unfolded.

The CBI, the scandal-hit business lobbying group, is cutting another 7% of its workforce as it struggles to recover from the sexual misconduct scandal which brought it to the brink of collapse last year, Sky News reports.

Newsquest, the publisher of numerous local newspapers, has suffered an apparent attack by Russian hackers, the Telegraph reports. Dozens of regional titles owned by Newsquest were targeted in a coordinated cyber campaign for a brief period on Saturday which saw news sites defaced with stories entitled “Pervoklassniy Russian Hackers Attack”, and a black and white logo. Another story, which appeared on the Bolton News website, showed a picture of the Russian flag alongside the headline: “Our president has gone crazy, shock content.” It is not clear who is behind the hack, which was carried out across a number of Newsquest titles. The articles were quickly taken down and there was no other disruption, Newsquest said.  

Marks & Spencer Chairman Archie Norman has told LBC radio’s Nick Ferrari at Breakfast programme that the police are “not interested” in dealing with shoplifting, meaning retailers are being forced to spend “a lot of money” on trying to keep crime rates down, including installing new camera systems and employing store detectives “We get very little help from the police. I think we have to accept that the police are not interested in this sort of crime anymore,” he said, in response to figures showing the majority of store thefts in some crime hotspots were going unsolved.

easyJet pilots are threatening to go on strike over the summer holiday period according to The Sun newspaper which says the British Airline Pilots' Association (Balpa) has rejected a pay offer from the budget airline. Under UK labour law, trade unions need to provide at least 14 days' notice before starting industrial action. easyJet captains with 10 years of experience reportedly earn £163,589, a figure that would have risen to £190,000 in October and potentially £200,000 by April had the offer been accepted, the newspaper said. An easyJet spokesperson expressed disappointment over the rejection of the pay deal, but affirmed ongoing dialogue with Balpa.

Anglo American, the FTSE 100-listed global mining company has rejected another offer from larger Australian rival BHP and set out an alternative “clear, compelling and decisive plan” vision for its future which involves the divestment or spin-off of its steelmaking coal, nickel, platinum and diamond operations. The plans leave Anglo American focussing on just three main divisions - copper, premium iron ore and crop nutrients – and the hiving off of its De Beers diamond business. Anglo also said it would “slow” spending on the Woodsmith potash mine in North Yorkshire. "We expect that a radically simpler business will deliver sustainable incremental value creation through a step change in operational performance and cost reduction," CEO Duncan Wanblad said in a statement, adding: “The structural changes will result in a significant increase in the EBITDA margin to an estimated 46% from 31% last year, while cutting costs by some $1.7bn and reducing leverage to less than 1.5 times net debt-to-EBITDA”. Yesterday, it emerged BHP had offered £34bn to acquire Anglo, an offer that was rebuffed on the basis that it still “significantly” undervalued the company’s assets and prospects.

Kallo Foods, the company behind Fairtrade tea brand Clipper has reported record sales, posting a turnover of £121.7m for 2023, up from £112.5m.

Crowe UK, a London-based accountancy firm offering services in over 130 countries has been fined £180,000 by The Financial Reporting Council (FRC) in relation to its audit of London-listed Aseana Properties. The FRC review of the audit found Crowe failed to comply with the regulatory framework when it audited the company’s financial statements for the year ended 31st December 2019 resulting in it being unsatisfactory and, overall, of poor quality. As the firm cooperated with the FRC investigation, and took appropriate remedial steps once the failings were identified, the fine was reduced to £144,000. A spokesperson for Crowe UK said: “We are pleased the matter has been settled”.

Meme stocks are back it seems: shares in Gamestop soared as high as 110% yesterday after “Roaring Kitty,” the man credited with starting the meme stock rally in 2021, posted online for the first time in around three years. Trading in the struggling company was suspended multiple times over the morning as the online world went into a frenzy and shares shot into the stratosphere, City AM says. AMC, a separate meme stock, rose 8% by mid-afternoon. Roaring Kitty, whose real name is Keith Gill, was a marketer at Massachusets Mutual Life Insurance. His other alius is DeepF——Value, on social media discussion platform Reddit. The newspaper explains that “the meme stock rally began after Gill posted on Reddit’s Wallstreetbets discussion group. It involved individual investors taking aim at short sellers and hedge funds who were downbeat on Gamestop, forcing them to cover their short positions and drive up prices.

Gill’s post ultimately resulted in trading platform Robinhood shutting down trading in Gamestop, AMC and a few other stocks as share went haywire. The crisis was exacerbated by the pandemic as traders were stuck at home with less to pre-occupy themselves with. Wall Street’s Melvin Capital lost billions as a result of its heavy short position in Gamestop, and eventually collapsed in 2022”.

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