Is recession around the corner? Private sector bosses in the manufacturing, services and retail sectors are all predicting a “significant fall” in activity over the next three months according to a survey by the Confederation of British Industry (CBI), which says business are cutting staff, moving jobs overseas and curbing investment as they battle to cut costs and offset the impact of Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ Budget tax hikes. According to the survey of 990 firms carried out between 19^th December and 14^th January, the service sector expects business volumes to fall by 20% over the coming months, while manufacturing output is forecast to drop by 19%. CBI economist Alpesh Paleja said: “After a grim lead-up to Christmas, the New Year hasn’t brought any sense of renewal. There is an urgent need to get momentum back into the economy. The Government can help shift the UK’s economic narrative with more determined focus on measures that could drive growth.” Reeves will give a speech this Wednesday unveiling her plans for growth: the economy flatlined in November, after contracting in September and October, contributing to what the CBI says is “widespread” pessimism among business leaders, fuelled in part by the upcoming increase to Employer National Insurance Contributions (NICs). This, together with increases in the minium wage, prompted firms to reassess their budgets urgently, the CBI says. Shadow Business Secretary Andrew Griffith accused the Chancellor of continuing to “ignore the pleas” of businesses. “Despite saying she wants to go for growth, businesses are clear that the real blocker to growth is Rachel Reeves and the mistakes being made by this Government,” he told the media. A Treasury spokesman said: “We delivered a once-in-a-parliament Budget to wipe the slate clean and deliver the stability businesses so desperately need while not increasing taxes in people’s payslips. By bringing back political and financial stability, we are creating the conditions for economic growth.”

Profit warnings issued by companies surged close to record levels last year according to data published by EY. Almost one in five companies listed on the London Stock Exchange issued a profit warning in 2024, the accountancy giant said, noting that the only worse years for such warnings this century were in the 2020 pandemic year and in 2001 as a result of the combined effect of the dot-com bubble burst and the 9/11 terrorist attack. In particular, 38% of listed retailers issued alerts, EY said, pointing to “volatile” demand from shoppers. While cheap interest rates had helped businesses survive the pandemic, “more companies are now reaching a tipping point as cumulative pressures build,” the EY report concluded.

Morrisons is cutting more than 200 jobs as part of a cost-cutting exercise to mitigate rising costs linked to the changes announced in the Autumn Budget. The change means those in the Big Four supermarket’s regional people manager, store people manager and case specialist roles now face redundancy. CEO Rami Baitiéh warned recently that businesses in the UK were facing an "avalanche of costs" associated with the October Budget, which hiked NICs and increased the minimum wage and the national living wage. Tesco and Marks & Spencer have also warned over the costs heaped on them by the Budget, and on Friday, rival supermarket Sainsburys announced more than 3,000 job cuts and the closure of its in-store cafes as part of measures to save £1bn in annual costs. “Before any final decisions are taken, we will undertake a minimum 45 day consultation process,” a Morrisons spokesperson said.

Cookware retailer Lakeland is up for sale, hiring Teneo to orchestrate a sale after a surge in costs, again linked to Rachel Reeves’ Budget. A spokesperson told Sky News: “In response to the challenging retail environment, we are considering a number of options to ensure a sustainable and long-term capital structure, which builds on our 60-year heritage as one of the UK’s most innovative homeware retailers.” Lakeland is owned by the Rayner family, which founded the group in 1964 to sell plastic freezer bags. 60 years ago. It is based in the Lake District, employs 1,000 people, and has 68 stores across England, Wales and Scotland. Turnover for the year ending December 2023 was flat but higher costs meant it made a £1.9m loss.

WH Smith is considering selling its 500 or so "profitable and cash-generative" high street stores, having become a "focused global travel retailer" over the past decade. Its travel business operates at airports and railway stations, and has more than 1,200 stores across 32 countries. It makes three-quarters of group revenue and 85% of trading profit. However, WH Smith said there is “no certainty that any agreement will be reached, and further updates will be provided as and when appropriate". Its first high street ship was opened in 1792. The whole company employs around 5,000 people nationwide.

Princes Group, the Italian-owned maker of Branston beans has threatened to move production abroad and slash jobs amid a bitter dispute with workers and trade unions over pay, the Telegraph reports. Employees represented by the union Unite rejected a 3% pay increase in December, arguing they had been offered a rise of between 4% and 7% by the company’s former owner, Mitsubishi, which sold it to Italian conglomerate Newlat Food last year. The workers are set to go on strike next month. Sharon Graham, Unite’s general secretary, said: “If Princes thinks its threats will weaken workers’ resolve, it has another think coming. This is appalling behaviour from a shameful company. First, it pulled the rug from under our members by reneging on a pay deal and now it is threatening their jobs with these union-busting tactics.” Princes, however, says it faces “extremely challenging economic conditions” and soaring costs, such as rises in the living wage and an increase in employer NICs because of the Chancellor’s Budget. Founded in 1880 as Simpson & Roberts, Princes is one of Britain’s biggest food manufacturers with around 2,000 staff in the UK and 7,000 across the world.

Guinness owner Diageo has denied reports it is looking to sell the brand for £8bn. The FTSE 100 drinks giant says it has “no intention to sell” after a Bloomberg report suggested it was considering selling the pub favourite, as well as its 34% stake in Moët Hennessy, which is part of luxury goods group LVMH. A Diageo spokesman said: “We note recent media speculation around the Guinness brand and our stake in Moët Hennessy and we can confirm that we have no intention to sell either.”

Sir Charlie Mayfield, the former chairman of John Lewis, has been appointed to oversee the Government’s Keep Britain Working review of the benefits system and worklessness. Ministers are tempting to cut the benefits bill and get more people who are ill and disabled back to work. “It is a big task. But also one that lends itself to a methodical and thorough examination that is based on really understanding the current situation,” said Mayfield, who chaired the John Lewis retail partnership from 2007 to 2020. There are currently 9.3m people of working age who are neither in employment nor looking for a job, according to the Office for National Statistics, a number 700,000 higher than before Covid lockdowns began in March 2020. Of the total number of those not working, 2.8m are “economically inactive” because of long-term sickness, compared to 2.1m before Covid.

The average advertised salary has crossed £40,000 for the first time, according to jobs search engine Adzuna. James Neave, head of data science at Adzuna, said the wage increases were driven by inflationary pressures, a decline in lower-paid roles and a “continuing reduction in workforce participation” which has increased the ‘battle for talent’. However a growing number of employers in the UK are also choosing to hide salaries in job postings, he added, with 2024 standing as the worst year on record for salary transparency. There was only one month in the whole year where more job postings included a salary than those that did not. Andrew Hunter, co-founder of Adzuna, also said companies are not hiring as much as they were.

Billionaire Sir Leonard Blavatnik, Britain’s second richest man, has pumped another $800m (£640m) into his streaming service DAZN - known as the Netflix of sports – despite huge ongoing losses. So far, he has invested more than $6.7bn in the firm founded in 2016, which has snapped up the rights to sports including boxing and basketball, as well as major European football leagues and the NFL outside the US. It has also paid $1bn to acquire the rights to this year’s Fifa Club World Cup, but the free-to-air deal means DAZN will waive its monthly £16.99 subscription fee for the 63-match tournament. According to the Financial Times, the London-based company’s losses have extended to $1.4bn in 2023, from $1.2bn the previous year, despite revenues increasing from $2.2bn to $2.9bn.

Labour donor Dale Vince’s holding company, Green Britain Group, has swung to a £7m loss in the year to April compared with a profit before tax of almost £50m a year earlier. The loss is being attributed primarily to the failure of his “vegan gas” energy project which led to a £12m writedown. The project was supposed to create biogas from grass, rather than animal waste, but the Readng-based plant suffered engineering and design failures. However, a new facility is “under development and … will produce biomethane via anaerobic digestion, using grass from the local area as the primary feedstock,” the company said. It’s interests include Ecotricity, the green energy supplier; the lab-grown diamond company Skydiamond; and Forest Green Rovers, a vegan football club. Vince founded Ecotricity in 1995 after rigging up an old pylon to a wind-powered telephone at Glastonbury.

BusinessF1 Magazine, a specialist Formula One industry publication, faces being shut down after falsely accusing former Chelsea FC Chairman Ken Bates of plotting the murder of his business rivals, tax evasion, and conning investors. Bates, who acquired Chelsea for a token £1 in 1982, has filed a winding-up petition against the magazine to recover £150,000 in damages and costs after his legal victory against it in October. 93-year-old Bates won the libel case he brought against BusinessF1 businessman, who lives in Monaco, successfully sued BusinessF1 Magazine for libel over a profile that made several false claims a High Court judge ruled amounted to “comprehensive character assassination”.