The UK economy shrinks for the second time since Labour's first Budget.

13/12/2024


The UK economy shrank again in October, by 0.1%, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) says. The data marks two straight months of contraction following Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ October Budget, only the second such occurrence since Covid lockdowns were lifted. Reeves said the figures were “disappointing”. On a quarterly basis, the economy has now managed just 0.1% growth which, although in line with expectations, is the slowest pace of growth since January. Liz McKeown, the ONS’ director of economic statistics, said: “The economy contracted slightly in October, with services showing no growth overall and production and construction both falling. Oil and gas extraction, pubs and restaurants and retail all had weak months, partially offset by growth in telecoms, logistics, and legal firms”. Last week, Prime Minister Keir Starmer downgraded a solid pre-election pledge to secure the highest economic growth in the G7 to just an “aim”. Paul Dales of Capital Economics told The Telegraph he thought the Budget “played a part in holding back the economy,” but that this was not the whole picture. “GDP has grown in only one of the five months to October and is 0.1% lower now than before Labour came into power,” he said. “That suggest it’s not just the Budget that is holding the economy back. Instead, the drag from higher interest rates may be lasting longer than we thought.”

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is predicting that Britain’s workforce will shrink to a record low of just 61.8% in the 2060s. The share of over-16s in work or looking for a job will never get back to pre-covid lockdown levels, the OBR says, because of an ageing population and rising ill health. Since the 1970s, the rate of those aged 16 and over who are willing to work has hovered between 62-63%, with a decline in the number of men working being offset by more women coming into the workplace. 64% of Britons were classed as economically active just before the first Covid lockdown in 2019-20. That has since declined to 62.8% now. Almost 2.8m people are now economically inactive – not in work or looking for a job - because of long-term illness, in the main cited as being mental health conditions or back and neck pain. 1.6m people have started claiming sickness benefits since 2019.

A review of the UK’s Criminal Courts is underway. Retired Judge Sir Brian Leveson, who led the public inquiry into the phone hacking scandal, will lead what is being called the “once-in-a-generation’ probe. Among the proposals to clear a record backlog of cases is the creation of ‘intermediate courts’ where cases too serious for Magistrates’ Courts but not considered serious enough to be heard by a Jury in the Crown Courts are heard by a Judge, flanked by Magistrates. Leveson will also consider whether Magistrates should be empowered to look at more cases, to free up capacity in the Crown Court to consider the more serious crimes. He will also investigate how technology may be employed to improve efficiency. The outstanding Crown Court caseload has now risen to 73,105, nearly double the 38,000 seen before covid lockdowns. Some trials are now listed for 2027 but, on average, it now takes around a year for cases to come to court. Rape victims, however, wait two years on average. Leveson is expected to make initial recommendations by Spring next year.

Farmers are facing £600m in collective losses because of poor weather which has led to the second-worst harvest on record. According to figures from the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra), the UK’s wheat crop plunged to 11.1m tonnes in 2024, down from 14m in 2023. In the last 25 years, only 2020 performed worse.

The Cabinet Office has confirmed plans to cut 400 jobs in a bid to create a “smaller, clearer structure”. The Cabinet Office currently has 6,315 full-time staff. The Permanent Secretary to the Cabinet Office, Cat Little, said the jobs will be relinquished as part of a voluntary exit scheme.

The Royal Borough of Windsor and Maidenhead is seeking permission from the Government to levy a record Council Tax rise of 25% to avoid declaring itself technically bankrupt. If given permission, the Liberal Democrat-run authority would hike Council Taxes for an average Band D property by £320 more each year. John O’Connell, CEO of the TaxPayers’ Alliance, said: “In a true nightmare before Christmas, local residents are now staring down the barrel of a devastating council tax rise… [They] will be gobsmacked by this unprecedented tax increase that would leave household finances in ruin. Ministers must reassure taxpayers, and send a message to any other councils that have similar ideas, that increases like this will not be tolerated and they should dismiss this request without delay.”

Ofcom has fined Royal Mail £10.5m for missing postal delivery targets in 2023-2024. Less than three quarters of first-class post was delivered on time during the period, against a 93% target; while 92.7%of second-class post was delivered on time, missing a 98.5% target. The fine is the postal service’s second in two years; it was also fined £5.6m in November 2023.

Christmas strikes on Avanti West Coast trains have been suspended after the train operator made a revised offer to trade unions.

Around 150 renters living in a block of 83 London flats have all received notices to quit their properties in what is alleged to be a move to beat new Government legislation banning so-called Section 21 no-fault evictions next year. The landlord, Aitch Group, said the tenants were being evicted for refurbishment, but they dispute this on the grounds that the building, which opened in 2017, is only seven years old. Local Councillors and the local MP Vicky Foxcroft have demanded a meeting with Aitch Group, which was founded by property and payday loan tycoon Henry Smith. He previously founded CFO Lending, which went bankrupt after it was forced by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) to pay more than £34m in customer redress for unfair practices. Section 21 evictions have soared since Labour announced the proposal in its Renters’ Reform Bill. Figures from the Ministry of Justice show that 8,425 households received a Section 21 notice between July and September this year – the highest number in eight years, The Telegraph reports. When approached by the newspaper, a spokesman for Aitch Group declined to answer questions on the nature of the refurbishments, if the building would be re-let after completion and whether eviction notices had been issued at the group’s other properties.

Tullow Oil confirmed it is the subject of a takeover bid yesterday, saying it is in preliminary talks with Kosmos Energy about a possible all-share offer. The FTSE-listed oil and gas exploration company said there can be no certainty that any offer will be made, nor as to the terms on which any such offer might be made.

The FCA is taking longer than usual to approve fast-fashion retailer Shein's IPO because it is checking its supply chain oversight and assessing legal risks after an advocacy group for China's Uyghur population challenged the listing, sources have told Reuters.

Strathberry handbags, an Edinburgh-based luxury brand favoured by the likes of the Princess of Wales, Jennifer Lopez, Meghan Markle, Margot Robbie and Katie Holmes has doubled its profit in the last 12 months, City AM reports. Strathberry has just reported a pre-tax profit of £3m for the 12 months to 30th April 2024, up from the £1.3m it posted in the year prior. Turnover jumped from £17.3m to £26.8m in the same period. The firm was founded in 2013 by husband and wife team Guy and Leeanne Hundleby and now employs around 100 people. The Business Growth Fund (BGF) invested £8m in Strathberry in 2021. Its bags, which range in price from £175 - £995, are sold in Harrods, as well as shops in Edinburgh, London and Shanghai, but are made in Spain.

Make UK has appointed Lord Richard Harrington as its new chair, succeeding Lord Hutton, who has chaired the manufacturers' trade body since 2022. Harrington, who was the Conservative MP for Watford from 2010 to 2019, will take over early next year. He was also a Minister of State at the Department for Work and Pensions, and Minister for Business and Industry from 2017 to 2019. In 2022 he was appointed Minister of State for Refugees, and was tasked by former Chancellor Jeremy Hunt to lead a review of the Government's approach to attracting Foreign Direct Investment (FDI).

Sanjay Shahthe founder of London-based hedge fund Solo Capital Partners, has been sentenced to 12 years in prison in Denmark, after being found guilty of orchestrating a tax fraud that cost the Danish government more than £1bn.It is the heaviest penalty ever given out in Denmark for a fraud case. Shah also received a permanent entry ban to Denmark and will have assets worth DKK 7.2bn (£800m) seized, as well as a string of properties. He has appealed the decision, but will remain in custody.

The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3% yesterday, the fourth cut this year.

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